2012 shows signs of an improving housing market as the U.S. economy continues its forward-moving yet slow road to recovery. Although there are economists projecting housing prices will decline further, aided by distressed property sales that sell at a greater discount, these prices are expected to rebound considerably later in the year and continue into 2013.
Factors that continue to impede a speedier recovery in the housing are consumer confidence, job-growth uncertainty, and tough lending standards that keep many otherwise qualified buyers from financing a home purchase. However, consumer confidence may be showing signs of improvement according to a report released by Fannie Mae on December 7, which revealed that consumer sentiment toward home prices is stabilizing and that, for the first time in six months, more people believe that prices will soon begin to rise. This is an encouraging development, as much of our economic vitality depends upon the overall confidence of the consumer, and could trigger even stronger home sales as more people feel confident that prices will go up.
As the new year begins, many consumers appear to be in a holding pattern, waiting to see how the economy reacts to the different demands both here and abroad. Yet with steadily increasing sales and record-breaking affordability, now is the time to take advantage of these opportunities to buy or sell a home.
In Washington:
The U.S. economy continues to show signs of recovery as home sales increased by 4% from October to November, and the U.S. GDP grew by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2011. However, in order to sustain this growth and even move toward a more rapid recovery, there are still many things that beg attention, one of which is the mortgage-finance system. With banks refusing to lend, the supporting of the housing finance system still relies heavily upon the quasi-government agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
As the lack of available credit continues, the pent-up demand demonstrated over the last few months by increasing mortgage contract activity, will continue to build as many would-be-home buyers are unable to qualify for loans. If these people were able to purchase a home, this would help decrease the high inventory of homes on the market, spur the appreciation of home prices, and equip the housing market to better handle the supply of distressed properties still being held by banks.
What are banks waiting for? In a word – guidance. As a result of recent litigation and changing regulations, many banks are uncertain how to deal with the non-performing loans and REOs that they are holding on their books. This uncertainty means that banks are unwilling or unable to sell or remove these bad assets from their books.
With elections looming and a prevailing atmosphere of bipartisanship in Washington, both Congress and the White House have deferred, at least for the time being, giving even minimal guidance to the heavily regulated banks. Meaning that for now, a slow recovery is the pace that has been set for 2012.
Sources: Fannie Mae, U.S. Department Of Commerce, National Association Of Realtors, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg
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